How Bad Will Stock Market Crash IF We Have A 2019 Recession

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Today we have a serious discuss about the stock market. If we has a recession in 2019 how bad would the stock market crash. Would the Dow and Nasdaq fall more than 50%? Many stock market investors have been asking questions like this lately,I will also share my thought around if we will even have a recession in 2019. Let me know what your opinion is of the stock market right now and if you think it will fall huge in 2019. What do you think of stock valuations right now?

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Comments

brenton winter says:

I don't agree with your maths. Take your "bad" case as an example. In that scenario earnings drop 25% and the Dow drops to 18,000 points (i.e. 25%). Currently the Dow has a trailing PE of a bit over 20 and forward PE of around 15 and a half. So there is already some expectation that earnings will increase in the future. If, instead, earnings fall by 25% that would imply a forward PE of 25 which would be unpalatable so prices would drop to bring this back to somewhat a more reasonable level (for the sake of argument lets say 15). That would imply a 40% drop in current prices. Added to that, there would be some over-reaction so my guess for this scenario would be 50% drop in the Dow.
The long term PE ratio for the Dow is around 16 (which aligns with the forward PE of 15.5) which indicates (to me) that the market is factoring in the earnings increase – not a correction.

xR00K says:

I come , I dislike , I leave

Intelligent Investor says:

You can't predict the stock market so this video is worthless

john goldman says:

Late 2019 , Bear market
Early 2020 , Recession
Mid 2020 , Depression
Late 2020 , End of US Dollar

sokha sen says:

no one in history can time the market so just be ready for buying when the stock is on sale.

The Gold Mining Guy says:

A lot of investors have simply switched from CNBC (useless information) to their favorite YouTube financial commentator (useless information, but entertaining as hell). In the end, neither will help protect your wealth from an imminent bear market since their motivations are not aligned with the investors'. CNBC is all about ratings, while Youtube financial commentators' are all about views/likes.

Nick Eckemoff says:

I think it depends on the sector. IMO tech is going to get hit harder if there was a recession. When there's a storm coming, people buy milk, eggs, and bread to make toast, not computers.

L Lawliet says:

10:53 DIA and SPY are up 135% and 117% respectively since the peak in 2007. However, major US indices are outliers; other markets around the world have not done nearly as well. All but one have under-performed even US junk bonds. US indices may be the most overvalued, and may not be such stellar outliers in the future.

Jeff Anderson says:

Or how cheap will it make the prices of good stocks.

Mike O says:

More than Mildly Uplifting,Thanks!!

EVNI says:

Hi Jeremy what data is it what you see in my opinion and hearing experts like Buffet and Dalio speaking we are at the late economic cycle any time the market could pop it could happen tommorow or within two years but it will happen second good advise about index funds i think right now they are extremly risky. I absolutely agree with you long term speaking you have nothing to fear if you had bought stocks before the crisis of 1987 the time that has past is totally negilbly but what do you prefer??? I know i like to buy stocks when they are low

Myles Gray says:

In my short lifetime investing I’ve been though the dot com bust, 2008 Great Recession/real estate bubble, and the crypto bubble. I lost big sums on all of these. These type of bubbles appear to me to be the new normal for the US economy. With this in mind, I expect the Dow to fall 40-60% from all time highs. Like the housing crisis, cost of building these houses was irrelevant to the selling price and as a result, the value of these companies doesn’t necessarily dictate the stock price now or in the depths of the recession. It is relevant most of the time but not during bubble peaks or post crash bottoms.

King_Abel says:

“If”.

IF TRUMP DOESNT GET IMPEACHED WE WILL HAVE ONE

Martin is god says:

Dow futures currently down 200. We could hit dow 23k within 3 days if this keeps up. I believe the fed steps in and says no more interest rates, blah blah blah and the trade war ends and back to 27k we go by next June. Dow 30k in 2020.

Gaurav Hegde says:

You are so full of optimism Jeremy . Love it ?

Harish Narain says:

Can’t wait for a crash. I love it when there is financial turmoil. It puts everything into perspective.

RevolutionRequired says:

What about a soverign debt crisis? What about 3,650,000 baby boomers leaving the workplace and drawing social security every year until 2030?

What about the fact that the 2008 collapse was a debt issue and now we are in even more debt. Why do you think the fed was trying to raise rates? Why do you think they admitted more or less that they cant continue?

credit card debts says:

how abou the bond inverting , what you think about that.

credit card debts says:

what you think about the bond market and the dollar what you think??

Punny Money says:

skip to 9:12 to find out if he thinks we will have a recession in 2019.

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