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Link to the interview with Shiller:

In pursuit of the perfect portfolio with Robert Shiller
We discuss how Shiller predicted the stock market bubble in the 1990s and how it resembles the current situation.
We discuss the perfect portfolio.
I recently listened to an interview with Nobel prize winner Robert J. Shiller on the topic of finding the perfect portfolio. It is a very interesting subject so I will summarize the interview and discuss the key concepts. Before we dig deeper let me first describe a few interesting interview intros.
Shiller didn’t get the Nobel prize for nothing as he was correctly saying that stocks were in a bubble in the 1990s and that real estate was in a bubble in the 2000s. It is interesting how when testifying before the Federal Reserve Board in 1996 Shiller called the market a bubble, especially the tech part of it. He was just 4 years early and saw the market double again in those 4 years only to be proven right later but this is one of the most difficult things to understand when investing, risk reward. Shiller and his co-author Campbell told the FED how the markets were irrationally exuberant and two days later Alan Greenspan made his famous irrational exuberance speech. It is interesting how they came to the conclusion that the markets were in a bubble.


K K says:

Hi Sven. Thanks again for another great video.

Two questions:

1- Have you done a video about the potential of stagflation and how best to prepare for it from an investment standpoint?

2- I was thinking about your miner videos and I was wondering what happens when the price of gold would go up in one currency and down in another. Like in the case of a currency like the dollar getting and the Euro getting weaker. Couldn't this hurt the profitability of gold mine in one country and help the profitability of a gold mine in another? If so, how should one think about this phenomenon when investing in gold or silver miner stocks?

kreteman777 says:

So. What's the chance of at least a 40% market crash in the next 3 years? Any guesses?


Sven I have a question. Ive been wondering if the student loan crisis has any effect on the economy . Nobody is talking about the fact that there is over 1.5 trillion dollars in debt . 44 million loans of which 8 million loans are in default. The debt grows every year and the cost of college inflates every year. Its affecting millennial's credit and unlike the housing crisis these loans can not be claimed in bankruptcy.

Max Tai says:

GDP linked bonds looks like something more promising than those mezzanine and junk bonds. Recently food stocks are dropping a lot such as Kraft Heinz, General Mills, Hersheys and looks like opportunity. Thanks for your vid Sven.

Jack says:

All in SQQQ

Stevareno says:

i am an old man and eyes not what they used to be : graph for "cape" i think ended 2010 isn't that 8 years ago? so how good is that predicting 2018? Love your site even the ones I do not agree with or see some problems with–anyway–your final thoughts on shiller bond could not understand what is was. by the way wife loves your gorgeous eyes but after 55 years of marriage it doesn't bother me –if interested I can give you her email address!

G Yip says:

More people should listen to the experts, especially when they have a Ph.D.

S says:

Buy GOLD SILVER hold it in your your your own bank..out of the system..decentralized…has no claims against it…

Bulls = Feds us/jap/ecu calling brokers to buy/prop up bonds and stocks .. they just created another Trillion of free money to spend .. ie steal from future generations
Bears = Feds not calling brokers
Next QE = Helicopter money..every single person gets 1 million…what would happen to the fiat money value and GOLD…

reptilesgamers00 says:

If America's market tanked, I find it hard to believe international stocks wouldn't also tank.

Colin Burnside says:

Love your videos as always. GDP is what a Nation earns in exports and what it imports. The big market is Africa and South East Asia. Aberdeen Standard gave a really nice forecast on its Global outlook. Called the Bulletin issue 32 Spring 2018. Chats from Devan Kallo, Ian Cowie . Dr Kevin Carter and Flavia Cheong. Head of Asia Pacific ex Japan Equities at Aberdeen Standard Investments .

felix abreu says:

There are cracks in the market watching like a hawk the ISM and 10 year yield a break above 3.05 and ISM below 50 yeah baby the mother of all bear will come out no hiding on this one

brandonbeavisinvesting says:

That’s a great graph showing the google trends. Crazy how everyone has things the wrong way around!!

Canine 7 says:

Do you have a favorite stock from india

Michael Jay - Value Investing says:

CASH IS KING. Great reminder why it is important to take a step back and re-evaluate the risk in your portfolio.

Kid Red says:

love your vids dude, thanks a bunch.

Martin is god says:

Considering the banks alone make up nearly 50 percent of all trades every single day, I don't expect a "crash" anytime soon especially under a stock market. The market has been going down as the banks slowly price in the trade war. Watch the market explode if the trade war fizzles out and everyone becomes friends again. I wouldn't want to be short this market. BUY, BUY, BUY

Zinho says:

You are really looking for a market crash! So much publicity and videos you do about it…. You are shorting the market and selling to all… Do you know that there are lots of good companies to invest and are cheep with good prospect for future growth… Focus on the positive oprtunities and not in the negatives… Good Luck with your big short!!!

SpiritLeash says:

Thanks for sharing. Can you be clearer? What percentage would you do in stocks now? And bonds and RE. And how much cash. Percentages are more useful.

Reinhard says:

Bonds are interesting, but I would not buy bonds issued by countries. There have been bonds with high interest rates from interesting companies. One is PNE Wind with a bond with 8% yield and Xinyuan's 13% bond (I think). Both companies where able to pay it and did so. It seemed that both companies where not very experienced when launcing these bonds, now they have issued bonds with somewhat lower yields (4% and 8%). Very interesting to see that one can find good bonds with very high interest rates, I had no idea.

And I recently watched an interview of Ken Fisher from November 2017. Who is this guy and is it worth the time to listen to him?

Drunken Sailor says:

Good video as usual.

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