Stock Market "Predictions" For 2019 Resemble 1929 Crash

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Close – Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we’re going to be talking about stock market predictions for 2019 and why it might resemble the 1929 crash. I want to go through a chart here on today’s podcast as we start off the New Year and just potentially lay the groundwork for a possible scenario of where the markets could be going in 2019. Now, as many of you guys know and if you’ve traded through the end of 2018, the markets had quite a wild ride to the end of 2018 and we saw a lot of volatility in both directions as we closed out the last year. As we start to look towards 2019, the question becomes – Where does the market go from here? And this is just my opinion on it. Obviously, we have no idea where the market goes. But my opinion on it is that I think that we are at the top of a cyclical bear market and this is interesting because we don’t have one major catalyst yet that is turning over the markets. In fact, it seems to be a lot of different things. There’s news from Apple and news from Tesla and the oil markets are depressed and emerging markets are depressed. And so, there’s a lot of things that are kind of happening and revealing themselves in the middle of what I think is the next cyclical bear market down. And so, this is important because as investors and traders, we have to understand when these cyclical bear markets come, these massive bear market moves, how might they develop, how might they unfold over time. And I don’t think that this particular move that we’re in right now was going to be a major crash straight down and then straight back up like we saw in 2008, 2009. 2008, 2009 I think was a little bit different in the sense that we crashed pretty hard and then we rebounded just as hard and I don’t think we’re going to be going through that. I think what we’re going to see this time around is something that might resemble the 1929 crash and the ensuing decline in the markets that happened over the next two and a half years.


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